Basketball Math

What if I told you that a team that shoots 80% from the field can lose to a team that shoots 20%???

With basketball math…it’s possible.

Ok, let’s start with the basics. The team with more points at the end of the game wins. And in order to score you need to put the ball through the hoop. Good so far?

Your team must possess the ball in order to score. More possessions = more opportunities to score. DUH, but during a game, each team doesn’t get the same number of possessions. Therefore, more possessions mean more opportunities to shoot = more chances to score.

Note to self: Get more possessions than the other team.

Turnovers are killer for this reason: A turnover means one less possession or opportunity to score AND one more possession for the other team. Rebounds ALSO create possessions. Fewer rebounds and more turnovers, and your opponent has way more possessions or chances to score.

Now, for the math.

• Team A has an unstoppable big man who shoots 80% from the field and scores all their points in the paint. Team B has a terrible shooting day making zero threes and shoots only 40% from two. Thankfully, Team B is scrappy and comes away with 15 steals and 15 offensive rebounds. Who wins?

  • Team A scores 80% on 20 possessions = 32 pts

  • Team B scores on just 40% of their possessions but has 30 extra possessions with 50 for the game = 40 pts and a win by 8!

A formula for success is to create more turnovers than you give up (positive turnover ratio), as well as winning the rebounding battle. When you get “extra” possessions from turnovers and offensive rebounds, you have a better chance of winning. It’s math.